Doubting a Grand Bargain:

If we had any doubts as to the extent to which Syria and Iran will go to protect their interests viz-a-viz Hezbollah and their influence in Lebanon and the Middle East, they are demolished now. What is scary is that the "realist" school of thought that continues to dominate Foggy Bottom can't seem to see the forest through all the trees.

In their narrow, in many ways blind perspective of world events, it does not appear taht US diplomats "get it", meaning that they simply do not understand that this is a situation where talk and dialogue will not secure American interests - unless that talk and dialogue is supported by an understanding that NOT talking would mean certain doom.

Put simply, we cannot achieve diplomatic victories while we criticize the possibility of a military confrontation, while we deplore the use of force, or while we condemn our Commander in Chief as a second-rate Hitler. We can't win a diplomatic concession without a credible military option on the table any more than we can get a snack from a vending machine without
money. That is just how it works.

I hope State wakes up before they push us over the brink.


Anti-Syrian Minister Assassinated in Lebanon-Christine Hauser

Pierre Gemayel, a Lebanese cabinet minister and prominent anti-Syrian Christian leader, was shot and killed Tuesday in Beirut in the latest in a series of killings of prominent Lebanese figures who were critical of Syria. Gemayel's father is Amin Gemayel, a former president. Witnesses said at least three gunmen rammed a car into Gemayel's vehicle, then leapt out and
riddled his vehicle with bullets, firing at him with silencer-equipped automatic weapons at point-blank range. (New York Times)

See also Assassination Increases Tensions with Syria, Iran - Robin Wright

President Bush blasted Syria and Iran Tuesday after the assassination of Christian cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel for trying to destabilize Lebanon. Bush said the U.S. remains "fully committed" to supporting Lebanon's democracy despite attempts by Damascus, Tehran, and their allies in Lebanon "to foment instability and violence." He also charged that the regime of
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is in violation of two UN resolutions for its ongoing meddling in Lebanon. (Washington Post)

See also Syrian Link to Murder Threatens Blair's Policy of Engagement with Syria - Rosemary Bennett and Philip Webster

Tony Blair's policy of engagement with Syria came under immediate threat Tuesday as the assassination of a Lebanese government minister was blamed on Damascus. The murder brings the Lebanese government perilously close to collapse. The government will fall if it loses one more cabinet member. (Times-UK)

See also Syria Denies Involvement in Gemayel Assassination, Accuses Israel (Kuwait News Agency)